Worldwide Offices
Leading Economist Roger Martin-Fagg provides his latest Economic Update . Vistage members can access the economic update in full via Vistage Village, please find below an excerpt Where are we now in Europe? Europe continues its fudge and bodge, it continues to ignore the core problem which is that the Monetary Union just cannot work under the current framework. The Core Problem Under a system of freely floating exchange rates (the dollar and sterling are free floating, the Renminbi is not) the market on a continuous basis bases prices in a combination of factors. These are: the level of domestic interest rates, the inflation rate, the Government’s budget position, the balance of payments, in particular the current balance (this is the net of visible and in
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Leading Economist Roger Martin-Fagg provides his latest Economic Update . Vistage members can access the economic update in full via Vistage Village, please find below an excerpt The Euro Mess When Germany unified in 1990 it began a substantial transfer of income from West to East. With typical German efficiency, they put themselves through an economic boot camp. The SME sector underwent radical change, supported by the regional banks who were underwritten by the 16 regional Governments. Real wages fell as unions agreed to pay cuts. State benefits were reduced, particularly for sickness and disability. Companies invested in R&D, new plant and equipment and apprenticeships. The result was a 20% drop in unit labour cost compared to the rest of the EU, and a rise in unemployment
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Leading Economist Roger Martin-Fagg provides his latest Economic Update Vistage members which they can access in full via Vistage Village, please find below an excerpt The recent market turmoil The collapse and current volatility in most western equity markets is consistent with what we know about how our brain works in times of stress. During our evolution our brains developed three distinct parts. The first to evolve is a central core which is structured to ensure our survival. It responds rapidly to perceived danger and controls reflexive behaviour by shutting down bodily functions which are in shock: this is the basic instinct designed to allow us to survive. The second part came later; this controls social desires and emotions such as intuition, sexual urges, anger, unhapp
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Following on from Vistage economist Roger Martin-Faggs last article on this blog on the Euro and Eurozone, which is proving to be very accurate, please find his postscript below in light of the events of recent days. "The Footsie is 5400 as I forecast it would be in January. The markets have just realized that the global economy is slowing down rapidly, again as forecast. All this is no surprise to Vistage members; the supply of bank credit is insufficient to maintain growth in the West. The Euro system is unsustainable, Greece will default, they have just realized. Double-dip by the end of the year, my forecast will have been just three months out!! There will be calls for more quantitative easing, but this has no impact
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With yesterdays Eurozone Summit saving Greece again with a second bailout, read what Vistage Economist Roger Martin-Fagg has to say about Europe and Euro, which was taken from his latest economic update which is available in full for Vistage members from the Vistage Village. Europe and the Euro As many of us stated right from the start, the Eurozone economic model has some fundamental flaws. The recent fiscal and financial crisis confirms that the model is unworkable. The model is this. In a single currency system a country with lower productivity than the average should experience falling wag
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and that’s old news to Vistage’s economist, Roger Martin-Fagg…
As reported this week by the BBC, and confirmed by the Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King, the UK's economy suffered a shock contraction of 0.5% in the last three months of 2010, figures have shown.
The figures are set to raise concerns over prospects for the economy, with large public spending cuts expected to come in this year.
The contraction follows four straight quarters of growth, and took most economists by surprise – but not Roger Martin-Fagg, Vistage’s E
Love them or hate them, banks often play a vital role in the helping their clients maintain and grow their businesses. Vistage Speaker Roger Martin-Fagg’s recent forecast is that the UK is in for a “rocky economic ride” through 2011. Prompted by this to think about cash and banking isssues, Vistage Chair Dr Alex Kent invited Lloyds TSB Relationship Managers Dan Batchelor and Rebecca Kingdon-Saxby to meet with his members at their August group meeting. The objective was to consider how banks and their clients can build stronger, mutually beneficial relationships a challenging economic environment. We discovered that there are several areas of common ground. For example the characteristics of a good business include a clear vision and strategy supported with business plans and key performance
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Vistage recently hosted a very successful open day at the Merchants’ Hall in Edinburgh. Gary Weston, Chairman of Group 19, introduced the speaker Roger Martin-Fagg. One of the most popular Vistage speakers, Roger’s talk was named How Does the Economy Work and What Causes a Recession? They are two big and complex questions which Roger deftly explained with wit and verve. Injecting both humour and clarity into Gross Domestic Product forecasts is not the easiest of tasks but Roger’s engaging delivery ensured that even the most complicated of economic theories was easily digestible. Perhaps the most pressing question for most of the people in attendance was ‘What stage of the recession are we in?’ Roger’s s
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We’ve all seen the headlines. In the current economy, many businesses have tried unsuccessfully to raise finance. Their experiences have varied with lots of “flat no”, some “protracted maybe” and very few “definite yes” responses from lenders. The financing prospect for many businesses looks very bleak:
- Banks continue to strengthen their balance sheets. Lending is available, but is much tougher to achieve with higher rates, more security needed and more ‘setup’ or ‘consultancy’ fees than ever before.
- Government l
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